As Election Day nears, The New York Times is sounding the alarm that pollsters might be misfiring on their projections once again. Political analyst Nate Cohn—one of the Times’ supposed data wizards has raised the question of whether they’re repeating their 2016 and 2020 mistakes by underestimating Donald Trump’s support. It’s worth noting that Cohn is hardly offering certainty here, though; he’s hedging, saying he has “no idea” if these polls are accurate. But isn’t that the way it always goes with the liberal media? They build a narrative, they get it wrong, and then act surprised when reality doesn’t align with their imaginary numbers.
The issue? It seems there’s a “nonresponse bias” that’s skewing the data. In layman’s terms, Trump’s base—often white, working-class Republicans—just doesn’t care to answer pollsters at the same rate as left-leaning voters. This pattern of conservatives not participating in polls as much as liberals apparently throws a wrench into the data Cohn and his Times buddies rely on. Cohn notes that white Democrats were 16% more likely than white Republicans to respond to surveys, which means that, even with all the adjustments, there’s a good chance that the polls will once again be way off.
Now, Democrats, always quick to shout that their blue wave is just around the corner, are apparently suffering from a decline in early voting. This drop could spell bad news for Harris and friends on Election Day when Republican voters are expected to turn out in droves. For months, Republicans have been encouraged to use early voting options, a shift from Trump’s previous criticism of the practice. The Democrats, meanwhile, are banking on voters to show up on Election Day as they did in 2020—an election heavily influenced by pandemic-related anomalies that simply don’t apply this time around. As Cohn puts it, “There’s a little bit of a leap of faith here for Democrats.”
Then, there’s the polling itself. Even Cohn admits that some pollsters are now skewing Republican to avoid missing Trump’s support again. This so-called “herding” has led many in the industry to adopt heavy-handed tactics to ensure they aren’t missing any “hidden” Trump voters. According to Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, the Times’ own samples look significantly left-leaning compared to the 2020 electorate. His memo calls out the Times for acknowledging difficulty in reaching Republican voters—suggesting that, historically, Times polling has leaned in the wrong direction for years.
The Times, meanwhile, has published data suggesting that a recent trickle of undecided voters is starting to tilt toward Harris, potentially due to a handful of late-breaking issues. But here’s the kicker: Cohn confesses that in such a “jump-ball” election, the result is anyone’s guess. After all, when 8% of voters are just now making up their minds, it’s clear that anything could happen.
Trump’s team, of course, remains wary of the Times’ notorious polling history. After all, how many times can you cry “Harris is winning” before people catch on? This isn’t the first time pollsters have tried to soften their left-leaning errors, only to get burned when the actual votes roll in. Polling “experts” like Nate Silver and Cohn have admitted that their industry’s current numbers may not reflect reality. But here’s the thing—Republicans and independents are smarter than Democrats give them credit for. They see through the spin.
The mainstream media loves to play with numbers to prop up the Democrats, but every election they’re left stunned when Americans refuse to buy into the “polling panic.” This time around, as voters are seeing firsthand the chaos created by Biden and Harris’ leadership, they’re more eager than ever to make a change. When Republicans show up in droves to vote, these pollsters will once again be scratching their heads. Let’s remember the power of the American people—they’re not just numbers on a page. They’re tired of leftist narratives and are ready to set things right.
